Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x110584de6a1762464e56c4c04faad3fa0b29fb6a911b7477162d576ca96c1000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cagliari Calcioof Bologna FC 1909, Cagliari Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Bologna FC 1909 | 24c | 7,969$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.61 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cagliari Calcio | 78c | 6,469$5,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.1 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 74c | 1,182$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.03 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc673…93fbbacked Cagliari Calcio | 74c | 1,095$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Bologna FC 1909 | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 127 | 31.5%40 W · 87 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…c645backed Bologna FC 1909 | 20c | 684$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Bologna FC 1909 | 14c | 585.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 360.68$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Bologna FC 1909 | 18c | 194.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Bologna FC 1909 | 26c | 192.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 25c | 181.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Cagliari Calcio | 74c | 156.32$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cagliari Calcio | 74c | 133.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 127.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Bologna FC 1909 | 22c | 118.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Cagliari Calcio | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 27c | 103.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 11c | 100.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Bologna FC 1909 | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 17c | 86.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Bologna FC 1909 | 20c | 79.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bologna FC 1909 | 15c | 69.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Cagliari Calcio | 78c | 64.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 61.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 61.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Bologna FC 1909 | 27c | 50.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed Bologna FC 1909 | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Cagliari Calcio | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Cagliari Calcio | 79c | 31.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Cagliari Calcio | 79c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…00bebacked Cagliari Calcio | 80c | 14.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.