Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: VCU Rams (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe46708bf454d8196e02409d9d62f5bfae5c2383d4de9fcd63c54a2f119c60288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VCU Ramsof VCU Rams, Dayton Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Dayton Flyers | 49c | 6,500$3,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,185 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked VCU Rams | 51c | 5,380$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,636.2 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Dayton Flyers | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.99 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked VCU Rams | 48c | 2,150$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.19 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked VCU Rams | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.29 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed VCU Rams | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed VCU Rams | 49c | 700$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked VCU Rams | 49c | 648.9$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.93 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed VCU Rams | 51c | 636.67$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.97 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed VCU Rams | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed VCU Rams | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Dayton Flyers | 49c | 299.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed VCU Rams | 51c | 293.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.73 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed VCU Rams | 50c | 263.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.97 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Dayton Flyers | 50c | 235.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Dayton Flyers | 48c | 206.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed VCU Rams | 48c | 204.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed VCU Rams | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed VCU Rams | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed VCU Rams | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Dayton Flyers | 23c | 122.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VCU Rams | 51c | 104.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed VCU Rams | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked VCU Rams | 57c | 97.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked VCU Rams | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…2fd8backed VCU Rams | 63c | 72.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed VCU Rams | 48c | 53.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed VCU Rams | 49c | 51.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Dayton Flyers | 43c | 45.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…b908backed VCU Rams | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VCU Rams (-7.5)this page
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU RamsVCU Rams won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 148.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.