TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
VCU Ramsof Dayton Flyers, VCU Rams
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$271,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,806 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c5d…c55fbacked Dayton Flyers27c80,500$21,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,735742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+24.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e50…bcccbacked VCU Rams73c80,491$58,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,732.55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8e…34cebacked VCU Rams74c20,000$14,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,200837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a65…9142backed Dayton Flyers26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,200666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked VCU Rams78c9,505$7,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.385,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Dayton Flyers23c8,810$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.5789645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked VCU Rams75c6,735$5,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,657.4312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3672…2314backed VCU Rams75c3,800$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4028…b370backed Dayton Flyers25c3,800$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked VCU Rams79c3,553$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.472138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb470…ba61backed Dayton Flyers12c3,287$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.61735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Dayton Flyers16c3,227$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.072,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Dayton Flyers26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7805131.4%16 W · 35 L-8.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-39.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9978…e753backed Dayton Flyers26c2,800$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Dayton Flyers23c2,291$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.721,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Dayton Flyers24c2,088$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025130.7%77 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bbe…a1a9backed VCU Rams74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5203100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Dayton Flyers23c1,871$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.9639742.8%170 W · 227 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6756…8edcbacked Dayton Flyers27c1,821$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked VCU Rams77c1,793$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.372,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked VCU Rams78c1,575$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.51,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x960e…77d6backed VCU Rams77c1,481$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.523745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed VCU Rams75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3314447.2%68 W · 76 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Dayton Flyers22c1,305$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.193,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked VCU Rams74c1,285$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.115851.9%82 W · 76 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Dayton Flyers24c1,185$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.961,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Dayton Flyers21c1,170$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.047346.6%34 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Dayton Flyers4c1,063$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.962,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed VCU Rams78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22060548.9%296 W · 309 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Dayton Flyers27c940$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.281,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…9cddbacked VCU Rams74c900$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc5…7708backed Dayton Flyers23c882.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011028.2%31 W · 79 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Dayton Flyers9c808$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.852,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…cc4abacked Dayton Flyers27c800.23$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.5250%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e1a…f570backed VCU Rams74c800$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2083100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Dayton Flyers15c600$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2914151.1%72 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Dayton Flyers27c563.57$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1646446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked VCU Rams76c514.99$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.674152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Dayton Flyers19c465.38$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.421,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e5…eb6abacked Dayton Flyers13c437.85$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9215733.1%52 W · 105 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed VCU Rams76c429$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.181,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…783bbacked VCU Rams77c388$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked Dayton Flyers3c385.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109745.4%44 W · 53 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Dayton Flyers28c358.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Dayton Flyers23c344.39$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.213327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Dayton Flyers18c338.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.661,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3393…3519backed Dayton Flyers23c313.29$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dayton Flyers15c309.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.285,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed VCU Rams78c301.3$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0919554.9%107 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked VCU Rams74c291$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.424340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed VCU Rams76c287.56$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.651,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb253…6575backed Dayton Flyers21c249.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.33850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Dayton Flyers24c245.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8619641.8%82 W · 114 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Dayton Flyers20c241.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.211,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Dayton Flyers24c229.17$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556235.5%22 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad13…d3abbacked Dayton Flyers24c225$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420234.2%69 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8bd…463dbacked Dayton Flyers27c211.59$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Dayton Flyers24c208.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf858…dc3cbacked VCU Rams74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Dayton Flyers25c172.02$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5742339.2%166 W · 257 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Dayton Flyers24c165$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.421443.9%94 W · 120 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5818…a4bebacked Dayton Flyers21c163.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed VCU Rams73c152.23$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1799045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Dayton Flyers22c148.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5537441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked VCU Rams74c146.48$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4945953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e82…47d5backed Dayton Flyers24c145.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f3d…fea8backed VCU Rams77c143.4$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.44658.7%27 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Dayton Flyers27c131.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.523,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de5…e8f5backed VCU Rams78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.218362.7%52 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed VCU Rams78c128.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.213052.3%68 W · 62 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6145…3e2bbacked Dayton Flyers26c122.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked VCU Rams78c114$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.085158.8%30 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12a5…86dcbacked Dayton Flyers23c111$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed VCU Rams74c103.71$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9938345.4%174 W · 209 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked VCU Rams79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2135650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420f…b6d0backed Dayton Flyers26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Dayton Flyers22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb870…bfbdbacked Dayton Flyers26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e82…4e15backed Dayton Flyers26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed Dayton Flyers25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed VCU Rams74c93.5$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.910464.4%67 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b2…56febacked Dayton Flyers24c93.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked VCU Rams75c92.34$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.487047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Dayton Flyers18c90.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.051,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked VCU Rams76c85.66$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5640755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed VCU Rams77c83.91$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.324649.6%122 W · 124 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfae3…9192backed VCU Rams73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61894.4%17 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick76cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Dayton Flyers26c77.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2093447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb88…b1d7backed Dayton Flyers26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cfe…2fd8backed Dayton Flyers20c72.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.491526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Dayton Flyers20c66.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.267343.8%32 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6584…c018backed VCU Rams77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.94771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick72cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed VCU Rams78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.262451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Dayton Flyers25c59.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Dayton Flyers19c58.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1268254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc345…2c35backed VCU Rams76c53.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.782466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41eb…8edabacked Dayton Flyers26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d79…13fdbacked VCU Rams74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed VCU Rams74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1319851.5%102 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Dayton Flyers26c48.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.