NHL · resolved market
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4678528e421dae28299542518581bf260da39b2898e74bd1ad90b6f0211a5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Wild, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1925…4654backed Kraken | 52c | 12,988$6,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,752.68 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Wild | 48c | 5,015$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.82 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc645…e8bbbacked Wild | 48c | 3,327$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.88 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…53a1backed Wild | 48c | 3,028$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.3 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Wild | 50c | 1,581$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.55 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kraken | 50c | 1,352$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Wild | 48c | 1,329$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.85 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kraken | 50c | 1,219$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.83 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Wild | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3d…85abbacked Wild | 50c | 970$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Kraken | 51c | 729.85$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.22 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kraken | 52c | 684.11$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.74 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Kraken | 50c | 550$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Wild | 48c | 495.54$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.68 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Kraken | 52c | 298.83$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.39 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Wild | 48c | 259.95$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.97 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kraken | 51c | 246.89$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Wild | 48c | 216.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…6958backed Wild | 50c | 184.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kraken | 63c | 168.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…466ebacked Wild | 50c | 151.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kraken | 56c | 116.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wild | 47c | 110.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Kraken | 52c | 105.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Wild | 49c | 102.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Wild | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Wild | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Wild | 32c | 86.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Kraken | 62c | 80.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Wild | 35c | 61.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Wild | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kraken | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Kraken | 66c | 50.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Kraken | 51c | 43.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kraken | 24c | 43.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f63…2bb3backed Kraken | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Kraken | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Wild | 49c | 39.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Wild | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Wild | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wild | 39c | 38.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Wild | 48c | 36.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Kraken | 50c | 33.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Kraken | 69c | 30.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Wild | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Wild | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Kraken | 52c | 22.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. WildWild won
- Kraken vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.