Asian League · resolved market
Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe48ad69e27bf905c8145df30972a0bf2f472c68ef168f32c7c289d23f4807038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 2,987$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.88 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,507$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.19 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…3de6backed Yes | 19c | 1,001$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +262.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 22c | 867.67$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.64 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 28c | 682.89$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 573.08$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.57 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 23c | 543$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 28c | 514.15$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 350.75$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 73c | 329.63$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 294.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed No | 72c | 204.83$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 74c | 196.23$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Yes | 31c | 154.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 73c | 149.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 19c | 124.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 28c | 104.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 96.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 73c | 96.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…b7aebacked Yes | 28c | 82.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 71c | 78.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 26c | 73.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 25c | 56.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f8…3b51backed Yes | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 28c | 47.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed No | 73c | 39.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 75c | 31.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 30.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Yes | 34c | 29.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 72c | 29.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…a036backed No | 74c | 28.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 73c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 76c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-22?Yes won
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.