Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4bb57f6aa47d2d94ab1924f1279c3d3cd23b6dffaeb2f120763b4ff78a173ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 10c | 1,234$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 78c | 442.85$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 78c | 383.56$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…53b3backed Yes | 20c | 352.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 318.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 311.15$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 27c | 280$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 7c | 269.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 4c | 265.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 259.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 10c | 242.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 8c | 170.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 29c | 151$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 14c | 148.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 127.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed No | 79c | 127.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 119.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 13c | 115.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 76c | 95.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 67c | 68.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 62.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 56.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 20c | 56.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 35c | 55.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked No | 72c | 54.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 52.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…f118backed No | 78c | 51.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 25c | 48.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 44.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 24c | 41.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…24efbacked Yes | 37c | 41.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 34.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 33.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 79c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 30.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 27.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 73c | 22.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 72c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.