Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x197964b0de0db265576b0583b4a8768ede8c3cc2a0c84ba3422c7473681fc5f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 17c | 2,465$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.68 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 75c | 682.06$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.87 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 6c | 649.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 43c | 387$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.9 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba8…e4e4backed No | 4c | 383.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 63c | 322.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 12c | 227.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 218$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 61c | 156.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 69c | 144.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 31c | 139.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…05c3backed Yes | 75c | 137$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 41c | 119.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 119.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 119.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 117.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 107.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 105.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 30c | 97.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 93.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed No | 52c | 92.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d3…93d8backed No | 65c | 81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 56c | 80.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 62c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 65c | 79.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 27c | 78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 66.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed No | 60c | 66.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 63.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ed…a802backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 61.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 41c | 60.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 54.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 56c | 53.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 60c | 50.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…38a6backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 49.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 48.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 33c | 47.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 74c | 47.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 60c | 44.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 48c | 43.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…42f2backed Yes | 37c | 42.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes | 38c | 42.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…3cedbacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 41.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 49c | 40.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ee…53b4backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 36c | 39.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 43c | 38.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 38.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 36.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 36.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 34.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 34.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…f2fcbacked No | 65c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 33.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…1d3dbacked Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 32.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 69c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e25…ef0ebacked Yes | 55c | 28.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 28.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 65c | 27.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 69c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 67c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 63c | 22.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed No | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 63c | 20.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.