Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4bd43df9dd1ccbca93e6fb798667d8dacac7eae45b0cc08cf3307468165340e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,667 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 57c | 494.82$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 3c | 375.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed No | 49c | 264.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.48 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…3d69backed Yes | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f8d0backed Yes | 50c | 199.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 185$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 168.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 62c | 168.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 166.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 34c | 145.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 143.58$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 55c | 134.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 59c | 130.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 129.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 79c | 107.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 91.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 57c | 87.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 35c | 85.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 37c | 83.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 82.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…73d9backed No | 61c | 81.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 77.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 77.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 36c | 66.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked No | 74c | 60.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 54c | 56.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 53.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 49c | 51.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 31c | 50.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 69c | 49.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 52c | 48.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 58c | 43.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…8c52backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 34.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 60c | 33.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 66c | 28.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b9…7ce7backed Yes | 40c | 27.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 77c | 24.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 60c | 24.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 48c | 21.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…af1abacked Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.