MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds winning after 5 innings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c604a80e67e6754c2686144ab6f82d5e3fc62132957dc5317a64cbc894f5ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,594$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.85 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 57c | 1,368$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.3 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed No | 43c | 1,102$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked No | 43c | 1,102$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 43c | 785.24$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 44c | 373.78$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Yes | 45c | 355$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…c697backed No | 55c | 355$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.75 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 49c | 303.73$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.05 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 56c | 210$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 51c | 169$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Yes | 57c | 87.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Yes | 55c | 80.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 57c | 58.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 22.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b7adbacked Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.