WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs. Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4d559cfb985f75ad6ddeabafa155c3e7de9cf3f7e5abfcd4c67413171bf2691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wingsof Mercury, Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Wings | 35c | 10,702$3,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,978.91 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80e…41c8backed Mercury | 71c | 10,600$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Mercury | 70c | 7,158$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Wings | 29c | 6,525$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,632.61 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Mercury | 57c | 3,341$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.09 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Wings | 30c | 2,291$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.83 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Wings | 32c | 1,399$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.92 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wings | 30c | 1,371$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.16 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wings | 33c | 1,299$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.18 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Wings | 30c | 944.46$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.58 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Wings | 32c | 755.74$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.9 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -68%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Mercury | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Wings | 31c | 683.23$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +76%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked Mercury | 75c | 600$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Wings | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mercury | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mercury | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Wings | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Wings | 29c | 350$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Wings | 32c | 314$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.52 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wings | 33c | 303.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.72 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Wings | 33c | 303.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.24 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mercury | 72c | 295.32$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…60fdbacked Mercury | 70c | 210.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Mercury | 69c | 205.8$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mercury | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wings | 22c | 197.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.83 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…dfeebacked Mercury | 69c | 173.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wings | 67c | 170$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Mercury | 69c | 159.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…307bbacked Mercury | 70c | 157.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…1eb6backed Mercury | 69c | 145.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…0774backed Mercury | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed Mercury | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mercury | 61c | 141.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Wings | 31c | 117.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Mercury | 68c | 111$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wings | 30c | 109.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mercury | 69c | 109$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Mercury | 69c | 104.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Mercury | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Mercury | 70c | 91.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mercury | 56c | 87.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Wings | 30c | 83.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Wings | 30c | 67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Mercury | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Wings | 33c | 60.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…c167backed Mercury | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…0451backed Mercury | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…15d4backed Wings | 32c | 41.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Wings | 29c | 40.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Wings | 30c | 40.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…1f8cbacked Mercury | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818e…b787backed Mercury | 69c | 27.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Mercury | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Mercury | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Mercury | 70c | 19.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Mercury | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.