TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
GamerLegionof ZEDI Esports, GamerLegion
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$627,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$735,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $627,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa113…bb53backed ZEDI Esports0c86,081$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.085244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked ZEDI Esports11c25,340$2,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,844.6932549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd36…0f01backed ZEDI Esports0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+474.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x455e…f7f9backed ZEDI Esports3c11,467$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.851758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed ZEDI Esports35c10,725$3,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,703.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked GamerLegion62c10,611$6,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,031.5517948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8087backed ZEDI Esports3c8,534$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b4…c879backed ZEDI Esports37c8,195$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e80…f694backed ZEDI Esports1c7,048$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0dd…341dbacked ZEDI Esports11c6,521$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked ZEDI Esports43c5,941$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.1380256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed ZEDI Esports3c5,906$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4960251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a5…c3f1backed ZEDI Esports11c5,131$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed GamerLegion58c5,077$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.6543344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aca…c347backed ZEDI Esports1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37d…c735backed ZEDI Esports1c4,935$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0afa…eff3backed ZEDI Esports5c4,846$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked ZEDI Esports1c4,386$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.22561.8%1 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-77%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee2d…36ffbacked ZEDI Esports8c3,410$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.581145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid-24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked ZEDI Esports36c3,328$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.756744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed ZEDI Esports1c3,258$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.764141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee8b…dcd9backed ZEDI Esports26c3,000$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed ZEDI Esports40c2,972$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.5231248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked ZEDI Esports23c2,718$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.782744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked ZEDI Esports35c2,542$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.8841242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed ZEDI Esports15c2,494$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked GamerLegion59c2,222$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.0224246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked ZEDI Esports45c2,103$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.3961456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed ZEDI Esports1c2,005$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.32110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed GamerLegion61c1,953$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.6310453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked ZEDI Esports35c1,939$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.1295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed ZEDI Esports36c1,812$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65172035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed GamerLegion58c1,719$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.061,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed ZEDI Esports36c1,650$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.4626540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed GamerLegion65c1,592$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.424255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed GamerLegion62c1,585$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.4329348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked GamerLegion59c1,574$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.8450850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed ZEDI Esports23c1,537$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.0625150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked ZEDI Esports19c1,521$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1660%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed ZEDI Esports37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55569644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed GamerLegion40c1,496$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.11968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+78.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed ZEDI Esports1c1,456$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+90.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed ZEDI Esports35c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50034442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked ZEDI Esports37c1,420$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.3716547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed ZEDI Esports5c1,385$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed ZEDI Esports38c1,216$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.3917757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked ZEDI Esports42c1,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5043855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked GamerLegion62c1,172$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.11,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d26…5e33backed ZEDI Esports29c1,115$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d6…54e8backed ZEDI Esports6c1,104$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.614346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked GamerLegion62c1,098$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.9135951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked ZEDI Esports46c1,052$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.6911758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5789…6407backed ZEDI Esports39c1,026$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004223.8%10 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked GamerLegion80c1,012$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.3454058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1d…2b19backed GamerLegion56c1,000$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.66759.7%40 W · 27 L+11.3wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+32.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x029e…b19cbacked GamerLegion56c1,000$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.66258.1%36 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+46%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0785…3540backed GamerLegion56c1,000$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.64663%29 W · 17 L+10.3wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+63.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked ZEDI Esports38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed GamerLegion60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40030452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb25e…1071backed ZEDI Esports3c959.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.781850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed ZEDI Esports25c951.46$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked ZEDI Esports35c934.29$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32722340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked GamerLegion64c931.93$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.9331953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed GamerLegion50c914$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45728347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked ZEDI Esports1c875.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed ZEDI Esports45c860.84$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.5111753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed ZEDI Esports44c790.07$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1425359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed ZEDI Esports38c782.89$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3241455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked ZEDI Esports17c764.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.969031.1%28 W · 62 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed ZEDI Esports40c756.25$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked GamerLegion62c751$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.9199844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14b…05e4backed GamerLegion67c710.74$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked ZEDI Esports36c700$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25256542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked GamerLegion64c697.66$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.6612253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked ZEDI Esports44c682.16$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006031.7%19 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed GamerLegion56c667.16$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.5589440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked GamerLegion63c630.25$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.2648053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked ZEDI Esports10c597.17$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0466545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked ZEDI Esports7c568.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2137018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed ZEDI Esports37c546$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0210741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked ZEDI Esports14c500$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed GamerLegion64c468.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7522663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed ZEDI Esports10c462.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0623736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed ZEDI Esports46c431.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009156%51 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed GamerLegion50c400.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.324244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked ZEDI Esports18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7235960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked ZEDI Esports5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.414452.1%75 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked ZEDI Esports25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed ZEDI Esports35c379.49$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8214048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed GamerLegion57c362.11$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.2526247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed GamerLegion63c354$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9815848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x018b…0115backed ZEDI Esports6c343.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed GamerLegion52c338$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8650247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed ZEDI Esports41c327.62$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.321,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed ZEDI Esports37c310.18$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3496245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb48…6ad1backed ZEDI Esports13c300$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked GamerLegion63c295.6$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6425246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd2…87f4backed GamerLegion52c279$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.528657%49 W · 37 L+13.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5754…cefbbacked ZEDI Esports10c260.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.772138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed ZEDI Esports42c257.91$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10841655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.