Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe50dc6acaa13e79a0958c9211f4cd464c5137036052d0b6a3b92521169bf2f12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 38c | 1,296$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.31 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 35c | 667.86$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.45 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 57c | 366.51$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.58 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 319.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 311.1$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked No | 62c | 199.08$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 181.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 61c | 163.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 155.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 154.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 153.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 149.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 67c | 137.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 70c | 126.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 102$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 101.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 97.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 35c | 86.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 80.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 78.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes | 59c | 76.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 35c | 69.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 55c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 45c | 68.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 66.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 61.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 63c | 59.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 57.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 56.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 54.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 62c | 53.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 52c | 52.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 34c | 52.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 50c | 51.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 46c | 49.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 74c | 49.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 49.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 25c | 48.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 22c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 68c | 45.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 48c | 44.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 66c | 42.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 39c | 42.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 38.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 52c | 37.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 36.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 39c | 32.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 61c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 66c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 30.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 53c | 29.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 28.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…e3febacked Yes | 65c | 27.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 63c | 25.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 78c | 23.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 78c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…0799backed No | 53c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 18.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 76c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.