NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe528dc3a78bbb0409693fcc9e93e3ad22e8ac835ca343d2c2a34fa4ea89a9330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Timberwolves, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Pelicans | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 7,547$3,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 47c | 4,344$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Pelicans | 54c | 2,736$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.56 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,910$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Timberwolves | 46c | 1,665$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.64 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f05…4480backed Pelicans | 54c | 948.15$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Pelicans | 54c | 727.95$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.93 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Pelicans | 54c | 560$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 46c | 368.58$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Pelicans | 54c | 244.44$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 46c | 230.78$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Pelicans | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…5218backed Timberwolves | 51c | 174$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Pelicans | 55c | 154.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Pelicans | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Pelicans | 54c | 138.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…9811backed Pelicans | 54c | 110.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pelicans | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Pelicans | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 54c | 99.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Timberwolves | 46c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Pelicans | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed Pelicans | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Pelicans | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Pelicans | 54c | 73.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Pelicans | 42c | 68.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Pelicans | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 49c | 46.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Pelicans | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Pelicans | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Pelicans | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Pelicans | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Pelicans | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Pelicans | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 36.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca83…4d2bbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 35.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 34.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Pelicans | 67c | 28.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Pelicans | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Pelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. PelicansTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.