South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-02-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe533178902e11d6a82127875515b351ff55b5dd5ff33bcffaeaae6df193fa5db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 7c | 4,149$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 72c | 2,500$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 4c | 2,185$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 26c | 1,907$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.61 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 27c | 1,551$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.6 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 1,400$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.15 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Yes | 74c | 1,088$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.84 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 74c | 1,081$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 27c | 631.81$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.59 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 79c | 630$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…b5e6backed Yes | 73c | 582.31$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.31 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 26c | 470.04$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 73c | 456.13$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 26c | 368.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…cc4bbacked Yes | 73c | 340.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e2…482dbacked Yes | 73c | 325.59$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 19c | 310.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed No | 7c | 220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…86abbacked Yes | 74c | 202.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed No | 27c | 191.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 27c | 180.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…dcafbacked Yes | 73c | 165.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 11c | 157.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 73c | 153$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…ce87backed Yes | 76c | 132.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bc…bef6backed Yes | 74c | 129.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 16c | 121$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 27c | 119$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9d24backed No | 28c | 107.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc38b…3368backed Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 23c | 59.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 71c | 59.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 27c | 49.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked No | 29c | 48.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 27c | 47.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 27c | 41.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f919backed Yes | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…ac2bbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 73c | 36.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…8772backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192f…352bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb235…c047backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…5c35backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda25…abafbacked Yes | 73c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed Yes | 73c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb6…f7b3backed Yes | 74c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…6a1dbacked Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-02-04?this page
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-02-04?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. EC Vitória end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.