Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe556d09616aeed33f08dcbed03120f9ca94f0f09ce87fff79a112e42ddd99567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 594.26$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 75c | 267.57$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 184.82$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 165.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 140.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 119.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 113.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 97.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 75c | 97.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 95.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 80.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 24c | 78.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked Yes | 23c | 68.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 49.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 46.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 25c | 45.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 45.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 80c | 41.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 26.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 21.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 18.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.