Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe56a884deb9b1317bc26fe43e387a912cca9a5d538048e86340b2fd7849c8949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 13c | 7,030$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.91 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Yes | 24c | 7,015$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed No | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 4,342$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.57 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 76c | 3,591$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.74 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 1,450$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 14c | 594$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 506.79$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.63 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 503$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 76c | 476.04$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 421.12$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…6ca4backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…f3dabacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 7c | 350.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 293.46$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 23c | 273$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 23c | 256.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 76c | 254$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Yes | 12c | 225.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…b3eabacked Yes | 24c | 208.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…f627backed Yes | 24c | 208.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…62dfbacked Yes | 24c | 208.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed Yes | 24c | 204.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 18c | 165.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 24c | 161$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 24c | 161$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 15c | 144.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Yes | 13c | 141.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 24c | 118.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 19c | 106.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 100.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…0163backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 76c | 95.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 23c | 87.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 18c | 83.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…6253backed Yes | 12c | 83.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 24c | 68.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Yes | 18c | 62.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 76c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 48.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Yes | 23c | 43.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 78c | 38.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked No | 77c | 31.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 76c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 77c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?this page
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23?No won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.