Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe57c439c68c7c3f32a019d5a868c46cce8362469d73ca5ee3af4888f708e1a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 5c | 496.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 45c | 389.17$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.02 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 298.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 57c | 255.2$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 28c | 228.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 219.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 194$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 9c | 153.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed Yes | 8c | 146.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…522dbacked Yes | 9c | 126.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 121$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 55c | 113$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 108.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…7ddfbacked Yes | 20c | 106.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 106.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 103.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…7e71backed Yes | 45c | 66.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 63.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 79c | 60.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…b997backed Yes | 30c | 54.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 53.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 40c | 44.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 46c | 38.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 58c | 36.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 77c | 35.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…e526backed Yes | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…a33bbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39d3backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 33.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 43c | 32.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 31.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 31.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 72c | 30.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 28.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 50c | 27.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 24.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.