Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a7f16d90b1bb326d7b8c1756f5fac06d71a4ddbfc43346fdbef1bce9f157d3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 1,396$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.15 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 671.18$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 2c | 549$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 352$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 244.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 232.15$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 27c | 228.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 46c | 215$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 203.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 194$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 177.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 159.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 145.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 44c | 143.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 114.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 114.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 105.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 80.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 80.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 77.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 68.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 46c | 52.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 50.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 25c | 46.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 57c | 44.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 46c | 41.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 35.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…4e2abacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 31.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 56c | 31.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 31.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 52c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 42c | 27.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 57c | 27.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 47c | 26.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 23.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 48c | 23.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 44c | 22.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 55c | 20.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 51c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 63c | 18.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 76c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.