Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45527ae4724f0d78691e709886252c1091858d7b5a54ed75fb56b4963473df91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 326.55$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 46c | 289.91$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.57 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 215$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 194$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 172.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 150.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 147.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 125.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 124.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 44c | 121$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 28c | 114.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 112$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 105.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 30c | 104.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 100.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 81.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 77c | 79.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 76.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 26c | 68.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 43c | 58.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 57c | 58.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…7ddfbacked Yes | 43c | 55.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 50.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 50.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 50.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 55c | 47.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 44c | 45.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 48c | 41.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 80c | 41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 37.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 36.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…522dbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 31c | 34.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 55c | 33.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 57c | 33.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 31.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 31.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 27.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 61c | 26.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 25.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 23.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 23.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 51c | 22.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 21.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 67c | 18.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 67c | 18.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 16.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 80c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.