World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the January meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe58166a46f80df336e6276a51a9e5ba459b148d2c036561f22dc35141d67e542
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes | 16c | 13,380$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,239.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 4c | 5,101$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.09 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda38…2a43backed No | 2c | 3,203$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 6c | 1,594$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 3c | 1,582$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…cd05backed No | 2c | 1,086$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 2c | 819.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 790.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 13c | 764$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 7c | 752$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…0139backed No | 1c | 748.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0690…b5c3backed No | 2c | 712.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 683.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…0df0backed No | 2c | 501.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 16c | 499$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 477.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…4b23backed Yes | 79c | 187.38$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed No | 9c | 183.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 73c | 182.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 78c | 153.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9d…ea34backed Yes | 73c | 139.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 138.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…eea2backed Yes | 78c | 128.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 73c | 104.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…9e17backed Yes | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc5…247cbacked Yes | 68c | 80.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb0…eb54backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…8a86backed No | 24c | 61.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 22c | 47.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 74c | 42.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the January meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the January meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the January meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the January meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.