NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Pelicans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe59d1c0331f6fc23a40b9ffd3bcf8fd3c74f65c10bcc4bce347b62e90dce3062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Pelicans | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 335 | 0%0 W · 335 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Pelicans | 0c | 4,700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Pelicans | 2c | 4,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pelicans | 13c | 2,465$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.6 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Pelicans | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.02 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Pelicans | 1c | 1,510$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854f…00a7backed Pelicans | 4c | 1,424$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 472 | 29.4%139 W · 333 L | -33.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Pelicans | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 679 | 11%75 W · 604 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Pelicans | 3c | 1,061$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 185 | 18.4%34 W · 151 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Pelicans | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Pelicans | 14c | 1,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 283 | 41.7%118 W · 165 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Pelicans | 4c | 920$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Pelicans | 7c | 857.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 129 | 38%49 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Pelicans | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Pelicans | 13c | 635.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 613 | 45.5%279 W · 334 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Pelicans | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 122 | 22.1%27 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Pelicans | 2c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 365 | 14.2%52 W · 313 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pelicans | 3c | 467.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Pelicans | 13c | 378.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…aae3backed Pelicans | 13c | 369$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…8516backed Pelicans | 14c | 356.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 178 | 34.8%62 W · 116 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Pelicans | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Pelicans | 15c | 324$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Pelicans | 13c | 225.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pelicans | 6c | 223.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Pelicans | 9c | 220.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…0578backed Pelicans | 14c | 206.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Pelicans | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 302 | 43.7%132 W · 170 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13e…8167backed Pelicans | 14c | 192.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Pelicans | 7c | 189.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Pelicans | 10c | 179.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Pelicans | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 296 | 43.2%128 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa013…d449backed Pelicans | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…09eabacked Pelicans | 15c | 162.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…1a7abacked Pelicans | 15c | 158.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bc…cab7backed Pelicans | 14c | 80.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +333.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…8339backed Pelicans | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.