Southern Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcats

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5be160b6ea06c750f688a4368d749b2e5995b4323d8c6db243c0865d65ef3b0

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Texas State Bobcatsof Southern Jaguars, Texas State Bobcats
Resolved: Dec 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,562

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,558 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1e3a…4033backed Texas State Bobcats	64c	7,700$4,902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,797.84	116	62.1%72 W · 44 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Southern Jaguars	40c	4,280$1,714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,713.65	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Southern Jaguars	10c	2,569$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.64	1,540	41.3%636 W · 904 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Southern Jaguars	44c	1,865$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.56	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Texas State Bobcats	53c	1,424$761 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$662.72	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Southern Jaguars	8c	1,052$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.69	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Southern Jaguars	40c	884.5$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.8	231	58.9%136 W · 95 L	+23.5wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Southern Jaguars	20c	817$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.97	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Texas State Bobcats	38c	814.33$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.21	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Southern Jaguars	50c	788.98$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.05	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Southern Jaguars	45c	613.8$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.04	1,173	25.2%296 W · 877 L	-43.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Southern Jaguars	35c	583.23$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.99	159	39%62 W · 97 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Texas State Bobcats	39c	462.36$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.04	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Southern Jaguars	38c	453.39$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.29	1,391	44.1%613 W · 778 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Southern Jaguars	46c	362.99$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.19	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed Texas State Bobcats	59c	339.98$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.39	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe29…1c8fbacked Texas State Bobcats	61c	328.28$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.28	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Southern Jaguars	39c	326.74$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.73	490	43.1%211 W · 279 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Southern Jaguars	10c	300$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	154	42.9%66 W · 88 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Southern Jaguars	41c	299.98$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.99	294	44.6%131 W · 163 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Texas State Bobcats	60c	273$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Texas State Bobcats	59c	272$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.44	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e7…4dc1backed Southern Jaguars	44c	225.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Texas State Bobcats	42c	205.92$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.71	124	35.5%44 W · 80 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Texas State Bobcats	49c	204.69$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.69	218	30.7%67 W · 151 L	-10.6wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Texas State Bobcats	59c	151$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.91	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-5.7wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Southern Jaguars	15c	137$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	4,382	40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L	+23.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Southern Jaguars	41c	121.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x881f…dfe9backed Southern Jaguars	41c	121.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e79…089bbacked Southern Jaguars	44c	114.51$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.73	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.23per pick	41cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb385…c1a4backed Southern Jaguars	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Southern Jaguars	38c	100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Texas State Bobcats	61c	94.68$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.95	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Texas State Bobcats	54c	92.98$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.98	98	71.4%70 W · 28 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	67cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e95…2bb7backed Southern Jaguars	24c	88$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7bd…d82dbacked Southern Jaguars	42c	81$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Texas State Bobcats	62c	80.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.17	391	44.5%174 W · 217 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Texas State Bobcats	60c	80$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Southern Jaguars	51c	78.39$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d10…e17cbacked Southern Jaguars	42c	78$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.76	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd568…655ebacked Southern Jaguars	42c	68$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d30…2645backed Texas State Bobcats	60c	61$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.4	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Texas State Bobcats	60c	59.22$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.75	735	49.1%361 W · 374 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f41…5cb3backed Texas State Bobcats	40c	59$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.4	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Texas State Bobcats	62c	56$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.28	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked Southern Jaguars	47c	55$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	133	43.6%58 W · 75 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Texas State Bobcats	61c	51$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.89	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12af…0730backed Southern Jaguars	41c	51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.91	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Southern Jaguars	25c	50.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.57	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a25…c672backed Southern Jaguars	57c	49.46$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Texas State Bobcats	60c	42$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Texas State Bobcats	60c	41.55$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.55	110	55.5%61 W · 49 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Texas State Bobcats	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.8	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	+7.9wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Texas State Bobcats	62c	40$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.2	53	64.2%34 W · 19 L	+6.1wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cf9…142bbacked Southern Jaguars	40c	39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Southern Jaguars	38c	39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c58…8c00backed Southern Jaguars	45c	38.36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.23	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-4.4wins	-0.24per pick	30cpaid	-76%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed Texas State Bobcats	57c	34.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.9	67	67.2%45 W · 22 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Texas State Bobcats	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	45	62.2%28 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc727…adc2backed Southern Jaguars	60c	32$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Texas State Bobcats	60c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Texas State Bobcats	60c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Texas State Bobcats	61c	28$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	-5.9wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Texas State Bobcats	62c	27.42$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	69cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Southern Jaguars	38c	27.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	1,487	43%639 W · 848 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9db…ab38backed Southern Jaguars	40c	27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x194f…81b6backed Southern Jaguars	60c	27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed8d…a20dbacked Texas State Bobcats	59c	25.42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Southern Jaguars	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	323	37.2%120 W · 203 L	-8.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Southern Jaguars	49c	22.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e4f…243cbacked Texas State Bobcats	62c	22$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Southern Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcats

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market