NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5d05cbea535d20c0e1001d62ed475662a597e4254a7797c23536357f6ed4ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Over | 55c | 4,134$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272.27 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 3,218$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 52c | 1,396$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.76 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 1,396$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.76 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 46c | 1,045$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.15 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 53c | 603.77$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 45c | 282.22$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 47c | 248$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dd…5a9fbacked Over | 71c | 232.07$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.77 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 29c | 232.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.77 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 120.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02e…7d05backed Over | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…027abacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd125…f654backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 70.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…25bbbacked Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 57c | 62.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…65cfbacked Over | 45c | 60.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 54c | 56.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…fe49backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…79efbacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…272ebacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 43c | 50.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa952…14a5backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…b890backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…a4b8backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…d2f3backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54cc…3d95backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…17f0backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…bb94backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…644abacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7e7bbacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…ec44backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…60fdbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -79%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b83…b79abacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd1…80d8backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d8e6backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Over | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5this page
- Anfernee Simons: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Celtics vs. MavericksCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.