NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5675ea2a95b2ae5d6f3f6992bf0028762bd43566e69c6834b5fd418b79b862a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Celtics | 50c | 6,578$3,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,319.79 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 47c | 3,674$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,469$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.66 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 69c | 1,293$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.52 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 45c | 1,241$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 43c | 1,167$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Mavericks | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Celtics | 54c | 928.18$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.78 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Mavericks | 60c | 694$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.4 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…fecabacked Celtics | 80c | 610$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Mavericks | 57c | 561.4$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks | 34c | 543.54$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.32 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics | 43c | 422.86$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.77 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Mavericks | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Celtics | 45c | 393.29$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.31 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mavericks | 20c | 305$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Mavericks | 48c | 299.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Mavericks | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Celtics | 45c | 194.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Mavericks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 55c | 127.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Mavericks | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Mavericks | 57c | 115.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Celtics | 43c | 115.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Mavericks | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Mavericks | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Celtics | 47c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e8…72ccbacked Celtics | 51c | 76.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -9.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Mavericks | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd75…ae75backed Mavericks | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Celtics | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Mavericks | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Celtics | 59c | 49.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Celtics | 50c | 44.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…cf08backed Mavericks | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 199 | 40.7%81 W · 118 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…d032backed Mavericks | 43c | 43.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…299bbacked Celtics | 49c | 40.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Mavericks | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Celtics | 44c | 27.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79b…cf30backed Mavericks | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Mavericks | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Celtics | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)this page
- Anfernee Simons: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Celtics vs. MavericksCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.