NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdaf0c5ad31ad72036b80a800db835220e61cacdffc74a1e64e0e7a3802869df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 52c | 4,085$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.29 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 3,562$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.24 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…b9e9backed Under | 48c | 3,329$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 2,245$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.9 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,651$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Over | 51c | 1,598$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.13 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,563$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.46 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 1,270$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.99 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 971.71$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.64 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 52c | 791.19$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.42 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Over | 53c | 590$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.7 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Over | 53c | 554.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.15 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 49c | 525.51$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.01 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 49c | 495.52$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.82 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 461.14$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.67 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…27e3backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 380.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 47c | 371.63$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.68 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…390bbacked Under | 47c | 259.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 150.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6767…d905backed Under | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 117$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Over | 52c | 106.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 70.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Over | 53c | 70.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Over | 52c | 69.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 48c | 62.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 57.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 52c | 53.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 51.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 43.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 53c | 42.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 25c | 40.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 38.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 52c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e9…a504backed Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5this page
- Anfernee Simons: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Celtics vs. MavericksCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.