NFL · resolved market
Spread: GB (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5d3acbb9b1b2ef87f93cc5980c72ca7980e742c736d2e056ff0d332c590bb72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CLEof GB, CLE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b33…beb6backed GB | 57c | 26,309$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked CLE | 42c | 25,820$10,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,848.69 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked GB | 57c | 20,036$11,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,336.64 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed CLE | 45c | 8,095$3,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,452.51 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed CLE | 44c | 8,085$3,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,533.4 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked CLE | 45c | 8,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked CLE | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked CLE | 44c | 1,779$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed CLE | 44c | 1,692$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.08 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed CLE | 42c | 1,017$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.59 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed GB | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked CLE | 50c | 762.45$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.45 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed GB | 57c | 580$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked CLE | 42c | 577$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.66 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…cd2bbacked GB | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed GB | 55c | 450.04$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.52 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked GB | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed GB | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed GB | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -6.5wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed GB | 57c | 169.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed CLE | 44c | 115.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…8030backed GB | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed GB | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked GB | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 138 | 66.7%92 W · 46 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed CLE | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed GB | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…ad86backed GB | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked GB | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed CLE | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked CLE | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed GB | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed GB | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…ab0cbacked GB | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…bf31backed GB | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked GB | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: GB (-6.5)this page
- Packers vs. BrownsBrowns won
- Spread: GB (-14.5)CLE won
- Spread: GB (-7.5)CLE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.