NFL · resolved market
Spread: GB (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05806c8e900d39fee2557b4cab45ebd28dd6b6fd0a9367b3cdf3fd5bd77410f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CLEof GB, CLE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked CLE | 52c | 70,548$36,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,138.99 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b33…beb6backed GB | 49c | 34,531$16,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,759.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…6088backed GB | 48c | 25,081$12,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,038.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…9b31backed GB | 49c | 14,286$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked CLE | 51c | 13,396$6,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,563.85 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed CLE | 52c | 12,700$6,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,096 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed GB | 48c | 10,533$5,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055.84 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed GB | 49c | 4,729$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked CLE | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed CLE | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed GB | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed GB | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed GB | 48c | 1,218$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.64 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed GB | 50c | 1,165$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked GB | 48c | 1,000$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed CLE | 53c | 1,000$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed GB | 47c | 954.49$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.61 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed CLE | 51c | 916.14$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.7 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed GB | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked CLE | 52c | 499.98$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed CLE | 53c | 480.84$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.99 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…76e5backed CLE | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x887c…e405backed GB | 48c | 437.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked GB | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked GB | 49c | 392.86$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed CLE | 51c | 348$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed GB | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -6.5wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed CLE | 50c | 310.48$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed CLE | 54c | 290.26$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked GB | 46c | 218.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed GB | 47c | 212.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed GB | 49c | 204.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed CLE | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…9434backed CLE | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed CLE | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…ad29backed GB | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked GB | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked GB | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked GB | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed CLE | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed GB | 48c | 88.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed GB | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked GB | 48c | 71.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed GB | 48c | 71.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed GB | 48c | 61.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed GB | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed GB | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…042fbacked GB | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed CLE | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…9da7backed GB | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…ad86backed GB | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked CLE | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…0e57backed GB | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked GB | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed CLE | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked CLE | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed CLE | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…dfe0backed GB | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked GB | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked CLE | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d6…851dbacked CLE | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: GB (-7.5)this page
- Packers vs. BrownsBrowns won
- Spread: GB (-14.5)CLE won
- Spread: GB (-6.5)CLE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.