Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5dc29a200b466b72a050f9e06745c9775e4a108db4bdd05cc2ea555403beb86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ecd…36fdbacked Yes | 1c | 14,066$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 8,659$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 13c | 346.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 10c | 292.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 281.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 27c | 278.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 10c | 256.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 19c | 254.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 246.91$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 244.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 73c | 231.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 78c | 211.83$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 198.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 27c | 187.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 14c | 185.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 178.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 22c | 169.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 43c | 163.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 160$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 41c | 130.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 20c | 122.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 120.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 21c | 105.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 20c | 103.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 31c | 99.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 21c | 99.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 26c | 95.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 77c | 94.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 21c | 93.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 80c | 86.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 82.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…a5adbacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 79.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 16c | 79.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 77.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…9179backed Yes | 29c | 76.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…b7b7backed No | 71c | 75.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…0018backed Yes | 27c | 74.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 70.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 31c | 66.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 46c | 64.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 47c | 59.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 47c | 52.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…3175backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 38c | 46.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 45c | 44.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 54c | 43.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 33c | 42.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 59c | 41.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 76c | 38.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 35.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…bf28backed No | 75c | 35.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 41c | 34.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 33.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb462…cc95backed No | 72c | 31.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 38c | 27.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 75c | 27.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 57c | 24.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 80c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…0b0cbacked No | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 75c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.