Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a7b96b8f8f66a4e7672593d937a97c09427971599cb28813097e916a698d0f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 73c | 1,025$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.25 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 58c | 891.24$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.33 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked No | 7c | 756.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 22c | 466.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 383.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 26c | 340.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.61 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 296.49$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 58c | 274.6$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd72…9a13backed No | 75c | 265.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 31c | 258.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dec…9ad2backed No | 80c | 250.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked No | 33c | 240.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 10c | 232.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.77 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 219$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 14c | 218.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.89 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 9c | 209.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 190.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 182.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 15c | 161.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.77 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 160.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 7c | 157.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…512fbacked No | 65c | 153.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked No | 71c | 145.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 145.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 77c | 141.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 8c | 133.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 9c | 131.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 23c | 130.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 45c | 129.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 22c | 125.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 80c | 124.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 16c | 123.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 73c | 115.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 27c | 113.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 13c | 110.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 18c | 108.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 103.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 30c | 100.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 28c | 96.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 21c | 96.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 41c | 91.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 89.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 84.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 81.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 26c | 79.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 79.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 24c | 76.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 34c | 74.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 23c | 70.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 70.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 70.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 77c | 65.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 64.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 29c | 64.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 28c | 64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 76c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 63.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 31c | 60.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba0…d76abacked Yes | 33c | 59.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 32c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 67c | 51.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 24c | 50.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…0de1backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 49.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 22c | 46.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…9179backed No | 68c | 44.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 29c | 43.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 41.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 38.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…ddd3backed Yes | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 34.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0280…c5b4backed No | 75c | 30.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…9d78backed No | 80c | 28.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.