Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66454d1b828a0a09fbed6540a2199a668fbf68b75474c4778ce93a7f34172ac1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 13c | 1,152$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 69c | 1,130$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.06 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 764.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 525.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 11c | 316.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 312.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 309.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 13c | 230.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 5c | 208.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 11c | 185.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 13c | 181.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 12c | 180.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 175$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 17c | 172.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 77c | 168.47$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 8c | 157.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 154.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 117$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 111.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 20c | 100.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 38c | 100.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 87.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…dce1backed Yes | 16c | 72.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 56.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…0de1backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…de25backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed No | 78c | 42.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 64c | 28.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 28.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…ab6fbacked No | 69c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.