MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5fa2c6e2bc54d88ec294d687c3ed88ab5cd3fabb9693451716b3b3aeffda931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc048…ca59backed Marlins | 43c | 2,579$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…4c84backed Marlins | 43c | 2,528$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Marlins | 44c | 2,019$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.24 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Marlins | 42c | 2,016$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.72 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…7271backed Athletics | 57c | 1,893$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad3a…11cebacked Athletics | 57c | 1,841$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Athletics | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.13 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c0…9718backed Athletics | 57c | 1,374$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Marlins | 41c | 1,067$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.35 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Athletics | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.63 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Athletics | 57c | 850$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.26 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 43c | 756.84$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.44 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Athletics | 72c | 700$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Athletics | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Marlins | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Marlins | 20c | 205$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Athletics | 56c | 139.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Marlins | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Marlins | 45c | 99.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Athletics | 55c | 94.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Marlins | 46c | 84.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Athletics | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Marlins | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Marlins | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Marlins | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Marlins | 42c | 43.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Marlins | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics | 58c | 38.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Marlins | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 57c | 36.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Marlins | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Athletics | 54c | 32.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Marlins | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.