Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe60a4dd1a284b933433902351a7d12d4356eb9f55662b1abbe4d6274c46c03c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked Yes | 21c | 733$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 18c | 416.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 338.56$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 23c | 285.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 39c | 281.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 278.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 255.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 243.31$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 11c | 213.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 203.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 23c | 168.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 162.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 33c | 158.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 154.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 10c | 150.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 9c | 143.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 136.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 132.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 16c | 123.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 118.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 116.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 110.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 100.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 92.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 92.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 28c | 87.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 14c | 86.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 30c | 83.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 18c | 73.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 62c | 69.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 46c | 65.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 63.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 62.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 21c | 60.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 59.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 54.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 49.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 43c | 48.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 64c | 47.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 55c | 39.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 38.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 38.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 36.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 34c | 36.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked No | 33c | 35.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked Yes | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 57c | 33.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 62c | 30.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 38c | 29.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 29.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed Yes | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed Yes | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 63c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 66c | 19.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 78c | 19.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 78c | 17.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 65c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.