Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe734d83a68c638a0159c84bedc4f0aac67c7466cfc1da358db5fffd741cb84d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,497$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.16 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 46c | 647.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.68 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 452.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 369.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 21c | 315.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 33c | 277.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 27c | 190.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 57c | 160$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 35c | 141.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 139.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 120.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 34c | 117.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 42c | 111.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 35c | 104.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 61c | 98.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 96.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 69c | 93.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 92.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 80c | 90.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 87.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 59c | 84.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked No | 26c | 84.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 73c | 84.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 24c | 80.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 70.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 69.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 68.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…68b2backed No | 48c | 63.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 62.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 61.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 30c | 58.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 70c | 50.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 21c | 48.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 44.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…1d03backed No | 47c | 43.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 33c | 43.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…365bbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 43c | 42.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 41.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed No | 35c | 41.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 30c | 38.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 35c | 37.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked Yes | 34c | 35.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…0a94backed Yes | 37c | 29.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 28.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 27.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 56c | 26.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 74c | 25.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 71c | 23.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 23.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 66c | 22.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 64c | 21.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed Yes | 71c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 75c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 62c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…fdb9backed No | 65c | 18.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 66c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 66c | 17.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 16.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…b2aebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.