TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$247,103
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$313,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,103 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5fb…84b5backed Nationals54c44,854$24,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,754.026157.4%35 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b3…4297backed Nationals43c43,675$18,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,894.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c09…02cdbacked Orioles57c41,725$23,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,783.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles55c28,871$15,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,866.451,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Nationals43c20,661$8,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,804.8115745.2%71 W · 86 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles6c16,451$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.882,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles57c11,688$6,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,662.441,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66f9…7bc6backed Nationals41c9,993$4,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,895.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…ad12backed Orioles59c9,993$5,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,895.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Orioles57c9,000$5,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,129.999749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Nationals44c6,892$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,892.176645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles57c5,286$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.461,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Orioles57c5,012$2,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,856.865349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf080…cc17backed Nationals41c4,378$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8567…4ef8backed Nationals41c4,266$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Orioles8c4,082$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.2886751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Orioles57c3,300$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.997450%37 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles58c2,912$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.12,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Nationals43c2,658$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.0521356.3%120 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles57c2,100$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2039,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Orioles58c2,058$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.5735854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Orioles4c2,026$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc1…4534backed Orioles59c2,010$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.93342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Orioles57c2,000$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.771751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Nationals41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1803250%16 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2cd…9ad1backed Orioles57c1,950$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x083a…c64dbacked Nationals42c1,800$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67dc…75ffbacked Orioles59c1,770$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97b…d794backed Orioles59c1,762$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+103.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b4…23a6backed Orioles59c1,748$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd098…6b56backed Orioles59c1,696$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9973…996abacked Orioles59c1,668$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Orioles4c1,039$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3263942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58033349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Nationals42c999.99$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.9916151.6%83 W · 78 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Orioles57c927$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.3927751.3%142 W · 135 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c5b…ecd4backed Nationals44c892.39$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Orioles22c892.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8379740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Orioles60c675$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40588549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe858…6145backed Nationals44c653.3$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x381e…16e2backed Orioles58c631.83$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.46425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles58c623.23$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.2468656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles58c589.32$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.81,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Orioles58c578.66$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.635,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Orioles58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Nationals42c515$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.714951.7%77 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28593240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f4…fd6fbacked Nationals43c489.79$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+47.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Orioles4c488$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5715644.9%70 W · 86 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Nationals41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.899951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.122,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nationals44c461.36$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.3639436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af1…8ff2backed Nationals43c408.84$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.04850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Nationals66c376.99$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12931248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5c…ccbdbacked Nationals43c348.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8420448.5%99 W · 105 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Orioles38c337.49$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5597950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2578…690ebacked Orioles58c320.31$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.78742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Nationals58c316.84$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3612335%43 W · 80 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17c7…4dbebacked Orioles58c306.47$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc07…50cabacked Orioles58c294.93$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15b7…8a6bbacked Orioles58c285.03$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.32837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2b8…b745backed Nationals43c280$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.62250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Orioles57c280$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.62250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Orioles15c254.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…73e6backed Orioles58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14514539.3%57 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.12,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd065…93e8backed Nationals44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.274259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Nationals42c226.62$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4430842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Nationals43c220.72$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.811346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a3b…fa08backed Nationals43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+36.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd10e…8404backed Nationals41c196$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.641457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x014a…8aefbacked Orioles59c196$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x357c…1ea1backed Orioles58c187.98$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…bc89backed Nationals43c183.65$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.68520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Orioles33c177.35$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4143250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Orioles60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038455.7%214 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e9…3166backed Orioles13c165.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218453.6%45 W · 39 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Nationals44c160.15$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.152548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Nationals42c126.19$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1923852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Orioles57c125.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6473352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeace…fe6abacked Nationals42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0513247%62 W · 70 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf918…bcd3backed Orioles59c114$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+57.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7910…0224backed Nationals41c114$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nationals52c109$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.61,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Nationals43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5725835.3%91 W · 167 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97dc…4eb3backed Orioles58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Nationals42c99.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Nationals43c93.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0220645.1%93 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals43c85.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.652,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b5…c1cebacked Orioles61c82.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509157.1%52 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked Nationals75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Orioles58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4055152.5%289 W · 262 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d6…825abacked Orioles60c66.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x575e…5b86backed Nationals66c66.65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.654852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x404c…f8e7backed Nationals41c63.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.314245.2%19 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Nationals44c56.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8294455.3%522 W · 422 L-2.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Nationals43c51.16$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1674356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef63…96cbbacked Orioles58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2946753.7%251 W · 216 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf4…0323backed Nationals44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+35.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…3a83backed Nationals41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7810552.4%55 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.