UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe686ed38649912cfc1a9d3eef3fa5c5c806b71932db4a4d1a2dd916d11dab40e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 56c | 1,422$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.12 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 56c | 826.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.22 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Yes | 44c | 620.48$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 31c | 564.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.84 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafd…2964backed Yes | 43c | 543.17$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…a4ebbacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed No | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Yes | 44c | 193.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 68c | 180.14$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 32c | 180.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Yes | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes | 46c | 174.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Yes | 44c | 111.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…81dbbacked No | 51c | 85.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260f…6980backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…7d85backed Yes | 44c | 48.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe095…1af6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…0874backed Yes | 45c | 33.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 84 | 77.4%65 W · 19 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Yes | 45c | 32.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez (Lightweight, Main Card)Chase Hooper won
- Will Chase Hooper win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mitch Ramirez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.