UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d04b85dd34e5559de433fbf3ca69e01ed66cfabcbd8accae2e32b5c68d7a531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b68…08bbbacked Over | 50c | 5,947$2,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,973.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 3,460$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.37 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Over | 56c | 2,275$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.74 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,992$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.99 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…4043backed Under | 44c | 1,824$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Over | 51c | 1,141$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Under | 49c | 923.06$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.76 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Under | 50c | 795.34$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 49c | 621.36$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.6 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 51c | 501$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.49 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 50c | 500$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.33 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 49c | 414$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 50c | 332$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 51c | 291.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 79c | 176.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Over | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 56c | 139.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01c…f92ebacked Over | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Under | 48c | 105.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 100.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 17c | 90.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Under | 55c | 74.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…d1bfbacked Over | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked Over | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 56c | 51.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 32c | 48.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe095…1af6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +5.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…aa3fbacked Over | 50c | 23.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez (Lightweight, Main Card)Chase Hooper won
- Will Chase Hooper win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mitch Ramirez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.