Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Alexander Bublik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6cb6952d3fcd5635de5ec7725f3d087bbc8cd318be91984eee67c304a875496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikof Tabilo, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Bublik | 70c | 7,603$5,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tabilo | 30c | 3,678$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.51 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Tabilo | 30c | 2,067$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.1 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Tabilo | 30c | 1,400$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.43 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tabilo | 31c | 1,126$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.33 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Bublik | 64c | 785.93$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.93 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…b52cbacked Bublik | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…5aeebacked Tabilo | 33c | 719.84$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.12 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tabilo | 41c | 701.81$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.14 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Tabilo | 36c | 679.1$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.38 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tabilo | 31c | 672.83$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.45 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Tabilo | 33c | 608.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.18 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Bublik | 68c | 595.47$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.55 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bublik | 57c | 524.18$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.4 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Tabilo | 32c | 523.56$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.78 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Bublik | 69c | 501.45$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.45 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Bublik | 64c | 467.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Tabilo | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bublik | 69c | 286$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Bublik | 69c | 281.87$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Tabilo | 33c | 245$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Bublik | 68c | 222.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Tabilo | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tabilo | 31c | 173.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Bublik | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Bublik | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Bublik | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Tabilo | 37c | 144$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bublik | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Tabilo | 31c | 138.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Tabilo | 35c | 137.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Tabilo | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Bublik | 63c | 102$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Tabilo | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…86dabacked Bublik | 62c | 98.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Bublik | 77c | 84.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bublik | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Tabilo | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Bublik | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Tabilo | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tabilo | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Tabilo | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Bublik | 69c | 55.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Bublik | 69c | 50.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Tabilo | 39c | 48.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Tabilo | 32c | 47.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Bublik | 64c | 43.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Tabilo | 34c | 35.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Bublik | 70c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Bublik | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bublik | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.