Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6d5e0d32eab425bb05128b9b13af982bba33c538afbdffb8350337fb7c8e134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8049…1e6cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,577$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 69c | 1,825$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.16 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 1,384$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.63 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 9c | 1,020$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 795.05$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.11 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 599.97$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 64c | 570$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.63 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 33c | 560.84$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 532.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 31c | 462.65$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.18 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 412.38$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes | 34c | 393.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 70c | 351.61$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.09 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 243.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 64c | 191.88$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 72c | 154.31$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 124.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 116.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 109.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked No | 64c | 107.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…038cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 18c | 98.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 86.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…1a1ebacked Yes | 22c | 67.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 29c | 48.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6db…3eb3backed Yes | 26c | 43.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Yes | 26c | 43.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 79c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…e0f5backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…3639backed Yes | 30c | 37.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…cf0bbacked Yes | 42c | 30.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 26.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed No | 73c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-11?No won
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.