Fifa International · resolved market
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6e569d2ff8c141b2faa69163c91d3c0f9837c6fa05da3d9b72b66bd6974aae1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f16…780cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,195$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…78c7backed Yes | 16c | 3,131$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 137 | 21.2%29 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…9ac8backed Yes | 16c | 1,875$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 16c | 1,063$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 12c | 500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…5e9cbacked Yes | 15c | 464$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d9…5442backed Yes | 15c | 334.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 314 | 35.7%112 W · 202 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…26f0backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 13c | 223.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6de…3423backed Yes | 16c | 222.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 16c | 212.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…c97fbacked Yes | 17c | 181.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 9c | 169.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 463 | 19.9%92 W · 371 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…b4b5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsthis page
- Dailon Livramento: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ shotsYes won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shotsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 1+ shotsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.