Fifa International · resolved market
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1921c081bc09d340896e4437ed2311cdc8386cfcb0a33ef3bc63fb78c5f936c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4fd…748bbacked Yes | 44c | 4,310$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.65 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked No | 79c | 3,523$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.86 | 160 | 65%104 W · 56 L | +16.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked No | 66c | 2,626$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.15 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 64c | 1,824$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.97 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…780cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,768$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.92 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked No | 55c | 1,557$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.83 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…e1a1backed Yes | 36c | 1,528$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed No | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 145 | 79.3%115 W · 30 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…975cbacked No | 75c | 1,282$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.04 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 56c | 805$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.2 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Yes | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 237 | 36.3%86 W · 151 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…fa6dbacked Yes | 29c | 690.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…11f6backed Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…41adbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 25c | 450.2$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed No | 73c | 438.36$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed No | 56c | 425$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 399 | 51.6%206 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf721…2f6ebacked Yes | 35c | 411.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 29c | 391.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…9206backed Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +9.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…4684backed No | 75c | 338.63$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c9…4c22backed Yes | 28c | 306.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 160 | 32.5%52 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 73c | 293.24$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 24c | 288.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…d26abacked Yes | 36c | 278.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 226.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…0777backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 27c | 193.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 191.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 30c | 186.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 282 | 40.8%115 W · 167 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…d5b2backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…db8abacked No | 66c | 145$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9018…c54cbacked Yes | 22c | 118.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e0…33fabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 375 | 26.1%98 W · 277 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 65c | 92.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…24f3backed Yes | 28c | 90.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes | 26c | 88.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x609a…8fb5backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…bb6dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…ad0abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…7865backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb302…702dbacked No | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…e6ecbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed No | 61c | 64.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 379 | 71.2%270 W · 109 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 29c | 61.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…ed54backed Yes | 35c | 54.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…964abacked Yes | 30c | 50.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…94b2backed Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66bb…cd52backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 331 | 23.6%78 W · 253 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…ba39backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 74c | 44.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 190 | 64.2%122 W · 68 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd35f…b9bebacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 33c | 41.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…5f86backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…270abacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -16.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 57c | 38.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 315 | 53%167 W · 148 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 76c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 24.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…3400backed No | 62c | 20.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…fe71backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsthis page
- Dailon Livramento: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ shotsYes won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shotsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 1+ shotsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.