Fifa International · resolved market
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a84ee472b5272d07cd18a5b38a8fc95ebdaaa77e3731b001d6398d1d4a55132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,930$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.3 | 278 | 20.1%56 W · 222 L | -17.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…3d54backed Yes | 18c | 2,466$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.88 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 77c | 1,876$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.4 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 78c | 999.98$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 860.94$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.66 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 78c | 688.61$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 24c | 597.27$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +18.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 80c | 547$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…c6a6backed No | 78c | 499.96$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…8a37backed Yes | 22c | 459.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 75c | 405.62$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 75c | 298$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…78b2backed Yes | 22c | 262.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d30…b016backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…1371backed No | 74c | 199.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 10c | 170.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…a234backed Yes | 29c | 170$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…fb4ebacked Yes | 22c | 145.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 237 | 29.5%70 W · 167 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…f305backed Yes | 22c | 142.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 188 | 27.7%52 W · 136 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 78c | 137.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 23c | 128.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 76c | 117.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…4064backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 38.1%43 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…72debacked Yes | 40c | 109.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 25c | 98.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 291 | 38.5%112 W · 179 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 20c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 27c | 80.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked No | 78c | 77.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…ba39backed Yes | 26c | 77.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…b4b5backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 57.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…270abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -16.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…9176backed No | 74c | 45.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 151 | 77.5%117 W · 34 L | +13.1wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 74c | 24.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 198 | 62.1%123 W · 75 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assiststhis page
- Dailon Livramento: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ shotsYes won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shotsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 1+ shotsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.