Fifa International · resolved market
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18105183b526667ac210f0f72b6f785420740b01b81dd5956798f2f733e7661c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9caf…94dcbacked Yes | 11c | 44,172$4,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,862.46 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…62febacked Yes | 11c | 13,608$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e6…d83dbacked Yes | 11c | 9,091$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -12.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,135$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4362…9e47backed Yes | 11c | 6,818$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc977…56f1backed Yes | 0c | 5,920$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…fad0backed Yes | 1c | 5,353$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Yes | 11c | 4,444$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.84 | 320 | 29.4%94 W · 226 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…ae31backed Yes | 12c | 4,304$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fe…3586backed Yes | 12c | 4,209$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes | 12c | 4,167$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…7ccbbacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 254 | 18.1%46 W · 208 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 2,117$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.29 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…27bfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252e…1178backed Yes | 12c | 1,408$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…783fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,180$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…bed6backed Yes | 11c | 1,154$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…ebc3backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…38c6backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…85cabacked Yes | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…780cbacked Yes | 11c | 927.27$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 11c | 916.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5d…0c35backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…92fbbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4be…8f6bbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…f76dbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…d4bfbacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…464ebacked Yes | 11c | 881$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…2112backed Yes | 12c | 835$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…11f6backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…942dbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Yes | 11c | 745.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090b…77b5backed Yes | 13c | 740.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ee…0d0ebacked Yes | 11c | 681.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Yes | 9c | 560$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 165 | 35.2%58 W · 107 L | +15.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4029…c8b3backed Yes | 25c | 514.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 35.5%81 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8134…04d3backed Yes | 10c | 478.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…14b5backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac7…a2bcbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…18e8backed Yes | 11c | 444$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes | 11c | 443.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe369…0515backed Yes | 10c | 440$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…022bbacked Yes | 12c | 412.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes | 11c | 406.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 318 | 9.4%30 W · 288 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…fe53backed Yes | 12c | 391.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 12c | 374.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…e4d1backed Yes | 15c | 333.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 251 | 50.6%127 W · 124 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc67…2859backed Yes | 11c | 309.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…d14bbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 276 | 37.7%104 W · 172 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 319 | 20.1%64 W · 255 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…808ebacked Yes | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…9eb8backed Yes | 10c | 280$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…436abacked Yes | 12c | 275.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a0…da23backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 13.4%13 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776a…5349backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…6b2abacked Yes | 11c | 269.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 11c | 266.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 450 | 38.2%172 W · 278 L | -28.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed Yes | 13c | 250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…c49fbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…f305backed Yes | 12c | 236.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 188 | 27.7%52 W · 136 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bf…0be9backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…6071backed Yes | 13c | 232.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…67d2backed Yes | 12c | 231.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…93ffbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…ee9ebacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0868…564bbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…1a48backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…b58ebacked Yes | 12c | 226.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Yes | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 195 | 53.3%104 W · 91 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…8741backed Yes | 17c | 216.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…078dbacked Yes | 12c | 215.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Yes | 11c | 212$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…f606backed Yes | 11c | 209.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…e371backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Yes | 12c | 205.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 534 | 36%192 W · 342 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…99a6backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 10c | 190.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…5af0backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 309 | 28.8%89 W · 220 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…14bcbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de7…5c0bbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cb…d664backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…e388backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…7ecebacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…61cebacked Yes | 12c | 161.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 13c | 152.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8db…55e8backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95c…7dd1backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…a433backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…a673backed Yes | 13c | 140.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…c356backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…3fd0backed Yes | 11c | 133.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 11c | 131.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…9179backed Yes | 19c | 128.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsthis page
- Dailon Livramento: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ shotsYes won
- Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shotsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 1+ shotsNo won
- Nuno Jóia: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.