NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6e6d2be990b641c040dd18ac74affa55c95392a97ab3b4f589091211f7ccd33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 32c | 2,444$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.23 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 70c | 2,427$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.47 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Over | 66c | 878.71$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.76 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 34c | 848.71$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.56 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 66c | 433.1$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 42c | 422.8$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.71 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 306.01$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 67c | 260.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 195.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 59c | 183.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 72c | 139.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 43c | 124.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 104.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 67c | 103.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 74c | 99.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 32c | 98.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 68c | 93.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 68c | 79.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…bdd8backed Over | 68c | 67.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6629…4c3ebacked Over | 68c | 60.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ba…f184backed Under | 35c | 56.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Under | 28c | 49.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 36c | 44.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 55c | 43.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Over | 57c | 41.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ac…3f7cbacked Over | 67c | 38.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 67c | 37.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 55c | 33.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 68c | 29.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x688a…0f61backed Over | 68c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…f438backed Over | 68c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 72c | 23.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 60c | 19.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Ducks vs. OilersDucks won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.