NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dd2ff31c12b541e7f50ddaa4621d96ff420e48b4982df696c8d397683c65366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 44c | 9,981$4,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,391.85 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 56c | 7,852$4,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,454.9 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 56c | 2,940$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.98 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 49c | 2,504$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.78 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Under | 51c | 2,048$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.3 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 1,627$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.06 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 44c | 983.8$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.87 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 732.12$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.81 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 705.33$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.11 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 72c | 677.2$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.79 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 8c | 529.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 60c | 411.19$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 399.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed Over | 56c | 342.8$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.83 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 39c | 340.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…8307backed Under | 45c | 329.57$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 321.81$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.76 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 56c | 312.38$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.45 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 44c | 312.07$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 305.36$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 55c | 292.04$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.42 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 290.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 52c | 278$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 56c | 241$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 53c | 237.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Over | 57c | 194.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 194$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 139.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 51c | 133$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…a05dbacked Under | 44c | 132.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 165 | 54.5%90 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d7…3ed2backed Over | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Over | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…5ab1backed Under | 59c | 65.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…87bbbacked Over | 57c | 59.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 28c | 57.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Over | 61c | 53.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 61c | 53.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 228 | 53.9%123 W · 105 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…1245backed Under | 44c | 49.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 47.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 26c | 42.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 44c | 39.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Over | 56c | 38.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fb…ddbdbacked Over | 57c | 38.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…cce8backed Under | 44c | 37.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 45c | 35.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 55c | 34.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…517abacked Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Under | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5217…6c5fbacked Under | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…3a3abacked Under | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…c37fbacked Under | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 61c | 24.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 44c | 23.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…c8d0backed Over | 58c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1562…b34ebacked Over | 57c | 20.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf872…00b6backed Over | 56c | 20.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…b968backed Over | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c896backed Over | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…a3f1backed Over | 57c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…d28dbacked Over | 57c | 17.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. OilersDucks won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.