MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6f6e3bc340e5960b29ee2f7754b4bdef43f91a6c0b108fdd3b3c2b8ad10d0e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 54c | 2,701$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.51 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,619$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.85 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 42c | 919.24$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.08 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 11c | 600.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Over | 42c | 344.71$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.78 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 52c | 149.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 111.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 42c | 109.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…616dbacked Under | 53c | 92.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 27c | 88.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 57c | 69.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…0888backed Under | 62c | 63.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 18c | 61.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 47c | 48.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed Under | 41c | 46.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 37c | 46.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 65c | 37.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 40c | 34.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 61c | 28.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…3531backed Under | 60c | 27.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.