MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9fa1677b53e828731a073afb09a60316f3c77b6507d7ea4bec5c166bb6d1de4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 387.26$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 376.44$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 327.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.11 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Detroit Tigers | 37c | 226.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 198.68$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Detroit Tigers | 38c | 192.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Detroit Tigers | 38c | 191.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 168.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 146.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 124.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed Miami Marlins | 14c | 123.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 121.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 114.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 111.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 110.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 107.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 97.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Miami Marlins | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Miami Marlins | 15c | 72.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 49.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…0624backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 44.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers | 54c | 35.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 32.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…b27abacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 26.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 23.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.