Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6fb2db55c273b0e021dae56ae768237489c39ba40968b1b2e8d7d5e4775c0b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 682.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 36c | 308.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 35c | 252$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 43c | 233.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 208.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 51c | 199.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 168.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 69c | 137.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 206 | 44.2%91 W · 115 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 131.94$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 45c | 116.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 116.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 55c | 109.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 94.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 88.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 80.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 78.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 77.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 71.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 69.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 20c | 55.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…c324backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 50.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 50.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 48.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 47c | 39.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 32.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 30.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 44c | 27.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 220 | 70.9%156 W · 64 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 62c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…f631backed Yes | 72c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 60c | 18.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 66c | 15.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 79c | 13.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.