Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe71d282734e2f2f108019f5e4bc47786ca4b8121786c86f75c5ce1c5bab50eea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 294.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 70c | 250$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 63c | 231.13$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 38c | 224.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 38c | 213.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 37c | 177.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 25c | 172.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 170.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 60c | 169.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 166.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 158.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 143.72$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 143.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 38c | 141.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 127.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 124.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 115.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 104.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 27c | 93.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 85.36$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 85.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 83.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 75.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 75.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 32c | 69.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 69.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 63.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 56.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 55.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 42c | 53.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 32c | 51.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 48.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 44.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 33c | 44.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 37.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 67c | 37.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 33c | 32.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 62c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…b01cbacked Yes | 40c | 30.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 22.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 73c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 75c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 15.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…9067backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.