TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,071
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,071 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes44c1,049$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.928324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31de…03ffbacked Yes79c677.05$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.464991.8%45 W · 4 L+18.2wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+80.1%equal weight77+0.25 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No23c651.44$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7766543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No3c519.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.783,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No56c396$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.762,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes70c279.5$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.316,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No21c248.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.072,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No59c242.13$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4942754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes41c186.86$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.252,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No55c182.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7327461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes41c178.39$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8935325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes45c173.45$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.451,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes40c172.52$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.228245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No56c172.41$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes43c148.41$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3715553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c138.58$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.459,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No13c131.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.582,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c128.23$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.315,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c128.15$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82df…0f66backed Yes64c120.02$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.116989.9%62 W · 7 L+25.3wins+0.37per pick53cpaid+111%equal weight80+0.27 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes43c119.6$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3537144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No42c115.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.634,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c110.6$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.22,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes39c109.7$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.711,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c103.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.099,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes44c98.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.535,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No15c95.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.314,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No55c87.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.724,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.265,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c78.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No49c77.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.892,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No57c76.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7594552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No57c76.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.733,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No57c75.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3113444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes40c66.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.982,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad95…bfeabacked Yes35c65.96$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.592268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.9wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes40c63.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c61.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.224546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes56c55.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes51c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9524442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce0c…f7edbacked No57c51.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.632462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x329f…81b4backed Yes39c51.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.481926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2946457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No57c47.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.191,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes41c47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6928344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.518348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes44c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes43c45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4127…a8cebacked Yes50c43.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.643452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed Yes46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4815555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes48c43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4863538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No62c42.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.733,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9518…6c1ebacked No62c40.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8910671.7%76 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes31c38.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.671,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No57c36.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6297152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes41c36.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4152828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa052…925abacked Yes42c35.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.292227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c35.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.874,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.422744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.12,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes49c29.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.240237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be9…446ebacked Yes45c27.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.282231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No57c27.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6971649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No54c26.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1957948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No57c25.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.771,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Yes44c25.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.324045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d8b…e621backed Yes52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes45c24.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.442867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+40.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No55c24.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.441,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No49c23.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6449854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes43c23.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.347,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No59c23.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.857,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3e…814abacked Yes44c22.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.736350.8%32 W · 31 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No68c22.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4517361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes46c21.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7454656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71b5…d067backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.88246.3%38 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No58c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x792e…b01cbacked Yes79c18.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.991553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No57c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2617553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.