Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe727e762f5e3b0c15a545ee1c2780af888a3fb2555ba1cf74c15729c0f1e1e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked No | 69c | 1,323$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,076$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.51 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 984.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 31c | 806.1$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.92 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 6c | 656.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 541.61$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 27c | 469.05$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 349.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 337.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 21c | 335.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 15c | 324$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 293.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 14c | 270.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 261.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 18c | 225.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 224.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 18c | 183.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 158.46$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 155.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 77c | 155$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 152.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 35c | 150.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 138.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 15c | 133.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 79c | 126.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 125.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 20c | 112.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 108.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 21c | 104.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 21c | 101.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 100.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 77.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 27c | 73.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 75c | 66.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked Yes | 21c | 66.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 33c | 61.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 48.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 47.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 46.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 28c | 45.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 40.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 80c | 34.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 80c | 34.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 31.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 26.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 23.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…ced1backed No | 71c | 23.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…7cacbacked No | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…d14abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 74c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 79c | 17.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 72c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.